With war raging on Europe’s borders and an open NATO-Russia clash increasingly possible after US President Joe Biden approved the use of American weapons against targets inside Russia, the 80th anniversary of D-Day on Thursday should carry special resonance for the leaders gathered in Normandy, France. They should know that anything less than a common resolve to defend Ukraine and the Western-led world order could leave them vulnerable to the many forces that today are less than keen to uphold them.
Western nations, or the countries of the so-called Global North, are undeniably under pressure as they undergo tests of their democracies domestically and face growing and open adversities from competing rising powers. Those that call themselves the “global majority” are bent on diluting, if not neutralizing, the Western powers and their tenets of peace, security and prosperity, as set up after the Second World War. And the war in Ukraine has no doubt served only to reveal the scale of the geostrategic discord, which will, if not kept in check, disrupt the achievements born from the suffering of the Second World War.
In a strong act of symbolism, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the commemoration of the Allies’ landing on the beaches of Northern France, but not the Russian leader Vladimir Putin or any other Russian officials. Paris has opted to reverse its plan to host lower-level Russian representatives, claiming that the conditions for Moscow’s participation are not there, given the war of aggression it launched against Ukraine in 2022.
But as Western leaders pay their respects to those who fought in the Second World War, the all-too-modern war that has raged for more than two years will be uppermost in their minds. As, short of a significant increase in help for Kyiv, Russia may well gain the upper hand in Ukraine again.
The geostrategic discord will, if not kept in check, disrupt the achievements born from the suffering of the Second World War. Despite French President Emmanual Macron’s constant efforts to break taboos by refusing to rule out sending troops or military instructors to Ukraine and Biden indicating US approval for Ukraine to use its weapons to strike targets inside Russia — a position that unsettled some EU allies — the scale of the existential threats facing the Western world is unlikely to be mediated by the drip-drip approach to backing Ukraine as witnessed until now.
The list of Ukrainian needs is proving larger than what the Western nations can provide. Italy this week announced it will soon send a second air defense system capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles, but this should have been operational already. Germany’s new plan to increase its production of artillery shells, fuses and charges ought to have been carried out in the earlier stages of the war. The Ukrainians are also still waiting for F-16 fighter jets to be delivered. These are expected by the end of the year but, if recent Russian advances turn the table on the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian military units, that could be too late.
On the Russian side, Western experts have, since early 2024, been pointing out that its latest attacks against Ukraine have been carried out using weapons with technology from China, missiles from North Korea and drones from Iran. They point out that these three countries have become critical enablers of Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine. And their support has been crucial in strengthening Russia’s position not only on the battlefield, but also in other areas of geostrategic interest to the Kremlin. Though the cooperation between these four countries predates 2022, their political, economic and technological ties have accelerated since then.
And where Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have been firmly aligning their interests, matching their rhetoric with overt or covert actions and coordinating their military and diplomatic activities, Western nations look increasingly in disarray. The latter are only reacting to the growing disparate but targeted efforts by rogue or state actors against the Western principles, rules and institutions that have underpinned the prevailing international system for decades. Western nations are only just linking the dots to reveal the scale of the pushback against them.
Western nations are only just linking the dots to reveal the scale of the pushback against them. These include reports of China using artificial intelligence to sow division in the US in a crucial election year, as revealed by Microsoft in April, or Sweden claiming that Iran is using Swedish criminal gangs to target Israeli interests on its territories.
Other EU countries have reported increased levels of criminal activity that carry the seeds of stoking communal hate, racial tensions and discord in their respective societies. These include incidents reported in France of hurtful antisemitic images or racist symbols being painted in public places. And on Saturday, coffins draped in the French flag were left in the middle of Paris by individuals linked to Russia, with the aim of reminding the French that their troops would perish if their leadership sent any of them to fight in Ukraine.
The collusion between China, Iran, North Korea and Russia has been clear for a few years now. This has been fueled by their shared opposition to the Western-dominated global order, which does not accord them the status or freedom of action they claim they deserve. The collaboration between these four countries has been transactional, covering trade, sanctions evasion, military development and politics. They are always hoping to erode the existing order, which is dominated by the US and other Western countries, or rejig it to serve their own ascending power and spheres of influence.
As Western countries mark the anniversary of D-Day, their near disregard for how severe the threat has become needs to be changed. In the past, policies of containment and the tools of international institutions might have worked to preserve their interests and models of governance. But the level and multifaceted type of the emerging threat means it is proving to be a generational one that could eliminate the achievements of those who fell in Normandy and elsewhere. There needs to be a major strategic shift in how democratic states run their affairs, taming where possible their ultra-capitalist and extreme neoliberal states and societies. A renewed common resolve must be found in order to push back; otherwise, the US and its Western allies could soon wake up with not only Ukraine lost, but also the foundations of the international order they set in motion from 1945.
Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.
Source: Arab News
