Ireland, Norway and Spain are recognizing Palestine as a State. Such a measure has followed the comment of French President Macron in February- “the recognition of a Palestinian state is not a taboo for France.” Recently, France has also supported Palestinian membership of the UN in a vote in the UN General Assembly. However, as fighting and suffering continues in Gaza, and violence grows in the West Bank, prospects of the Palestinian people gaining their own state might seem further away than ever. The decision by several European countries to formally recognize the existence of a Palestinian state will not overcome the reality that such ambition still faces huge obstacles.
Nevertheless, analysts feel that the declarations by Ireland, Spain and Norway will put pressure on other countries in Europe- including the United Kingdom and Germany. Many countries today, about 139 in all – formally recognize a Palestinian State. In fact, on May 10, 143 out of 193 members of the United Nations’ General Assembly voted in favour of a Palestinian bid for full UN membership, something that is only open to States. Palestine currently has a kind of enhanced Observer status at the UN, which gives them a seat but not a vote in the Assembly.
It needs to be added that it is also recognized by various international organizations including the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. A minority of European countries already recognize a Palestinian state. They are Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bulgaria which adopted the position 1988; and others - including Sweden, Cyprus and Malta. However, many European nations - and the United States – have indicated that they will recognize a Palestinian state only as part of a long-term political solution to the conflict in the Middle East.
This is often referred to as the ‘two-state solution’ where both Israelis and Palestinians agree to have their own States with their own borders. This evolving scenario has led to analytical observations by geo-political analysts Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares. They have pointed out that “as long as the Arab world remains steadfast and clear that the US must stop blocking the two-state solution, an independent, sovereign UN member state of Palestine will likely emerge soon”.
Israel’s war on Gaza has become Palestine’s Liberation War. The brutality of the war and unconcealed disregard for international law have stunned global politics to the core. However, if there is a clear format of Arab unity, Palestine is likely to win its liberation, paving the way to peace and security in the Middle East through a two-State solution.
It needs to be noted that although, in principle, the United States government acknowledges the need for a Two-State solution, it blocks it in practice. This was recently visible through the US being the sole veto user in the recent past pertaining to Palestine’s membership in the United Nations. Israel also continues to rely on the US to continue to prevent the emergence of a truly sovereign State of Palestine. Nevertheless, even this obstacle can be overcome if there is unity among the Arab States.
Gradually, the Arab nations, with unity, are trying to circumvent US resistance. They are using their geo-political and economic aspects for achieving success. After a meeting of the Arab League in Bahrain in mid-May, the Arab world is working towards a global Conference to implement the two-State solution.
The Bahrain Declaration calls for “an international conference under the auspices of the United Nations to resolve the Palestinian issue based on the two-State solution, which ends the Israeli occupation of all occupied Arab territories, embodying an independent, sovereign and viable Palestinian state in accordance with the resolutions of international legitimacy, “to live in peace and security alongside Israel, as a way to achieve a just and comprehensive peace”.
It needs to be understood that Arab unity on the two-State solution has been strengthening for more than two decades.
The breakthrough came in 2002 with the Arab Peace Initiative although Israel rejected the Arab peace offer of the two-State solution and the US repeatedly backed Israel in its rejectionist policies. After the outbreak of the Gaza War in October, the Arab and Islamic leaders reiterated the peace proposal in a meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in November.
Since then, Arab-backed diplomacy for the two-state solution has been accelerating, even as Israel’s war on Gaza has continued unabated on the ground. After numerous delays and vetoes by the US, the UN Security Council finally backed an immediate ceasefire on March 25 although Israel brazenly ignored the resolution. On April 18, the UN Security Council voted overwhelmingly for Palestine’s membership in the UN with only the US voting against and two countries (the United Kingdom and Switzerland) abstaining. On May 10, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly backed Palestine’s bid for UN membership in a 143-9 vote. On May 22, Norway, Spain and Ireland announced plans to recognize a Palestinian State, and the Irish Prime Minister said he’s confident “more countries will follow”.
Not only is the diplomatic process in the UN and the Arab League isolating the US, but the force of international law is weighing in relentlessly as well. South Africa’s case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) charging Israel with genocide has led to a crucial interim judgement of the ICJ on January 26, which said it is plausible that Israel is in violation of the 1948 Genocide Convention, and to an emergency order on Friday for Israel to immediately stop its operations in Rafah. This week, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court also recommended arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant along with three Hamas leaders.
A global conference would make an end run around the US. More likely, the US will change its own position. US isolation in the world is intolerable for its security and national interests. The US needs good relations with the Arab world with its nearly 500 million population, its strategic location, economic role and centrality in the world energy system. The US also needs good relations with the wider Islamic world and its nearly two billion Muslims.
The Israel lobby in the US is working feverishly to hold back moves towards a two-state solution. In America’s corrupt politics, money talks. The Israel lobby promises campaign financing. Yet lobbying has its limits. American public opinion is turning against Israel’s apartheid rule and its shocking violence in Gaza.
The mainstream US media are now showing the US public that well before last October, Israel’s justice system had already become an instrument of oppression, dispossession and systematic murder against Palestinians. Social media conveys the daily destruction in Gaza with Israeli soldiers gloating as they destroy a university, hospital or apartment building.
Ireland, Spain and Norway say they are doing so now to kick-start a political process. They argue there will be a sustained solution to the current crisis only if both sides can aim at some kind of political horizon.
These countries are also responding to domestic political pressures to show more support for Palestinians. In the past, the position of many Western countries was that Palestinian statehood should be a prize for a final peace agreement. But Lord Cameron, the UK Foreign Secretary, and some other European countries have in recent months shifted their positions, saying the recognition of Palestinian statehood could come earlier, to help drive momentum towards a political settlement.
One needs to conclude by referring also to the international response to Israel’s attacks on Rafah on 26 May. There was a wave of international condemnation over the strike.
China has called on Israel to “stop its attacks on Rafah” after Sunday's strike, which killed dozens in a displaced persons camp. Beijing expressed “grave concern over the ongoing Israeli military operations in Rafah", Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said, according to the AFP news agency. In a statement on 27 May, UN Secretary General António Guterres said the strike had "killed scores of innocent civilians who were only seeking shelter from this deadly conflict". The UN's Human Rights chief, Volker Turk, said the attack suggested that there had been "no apparent change in the methods and means of warfare used by Israel that have already led to so many civilian deaths". The US called the images "heart-breaking" but insisted, as usual, that Israel had a right to defend itself, while the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, called Sunday's strike "horrifying". Interestingly, Israeli Prime Minister responded by claiming that “it was a tragic mistake” and would be investigated.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance, can be reached at <muhammadzamir0@gmail.corn>
