Pakistan is hosting a major security meeting this week, with senior leaders from long-time ally China and archrival India among those attending.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation was established in 2001 by China and Russia to discuss security concerns in Central Asia and the wider region.
But it’s Pakistan’s own security that is under the microscope.
An attack on a foreign ambassadors’ convoy, violent protests by supporters of an imprisoned former premier, and a bombing outside Pakistan’s biggest airport are signs the country is struggling to contain multiplying threats from insurgents.
The summit, which begins Tuesday in Islamabad, comes at a crucial time for the government. Here’s why:
Armed groups are outpacing the army
Pakistan says it has foiled attacks through intelligence-based operations and preventative measures. It frequently vows “to root out terrorism.”
But the frequency and scale of the recent violence give the impression that the government isn’t in control and raise questions about its ability to protect key sites and foreigners, let alone Pakistanis.
In the last few weeks, separatists from Pakistan's southwest Balochistan province have killed Chinese nationals in Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city, as well as more than 20 miners in an attack on housing at a coal mine and seven workers in another attack. The outlawed Baloch Liberation Army is better at mobilising fighters in different areas and its operational capabilities have increased.
The group wants independence for the province. It’s not interested in overthrowing the state to establish a caliphate, which is what the Pakistani Taliban want.
But the two groups have a common enemy—the government.
Analysts have said the BLA is getting support from the Pakistani Taliban. But, even without an alliance, attacks in the southwest are becoming more audacious and brutal, indicating that the BLA’s tactics are evolving and taking the security apparatus by surprise.
The Pakistani Taliban continue their shootings and bombings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.
It could be difficult for militants to hit the summit given the security around it and the areas where delegates will stay. But they could still wreak havoc.
Vehicles are often just waved through street checkpoints in Islamabad. Aside from government buildings and top hotels, body searches and under-vehicle scanners are rare.
“At stake for the entire state is the only mission—how to hold such an event peacefully,” said Imtiaz Gul, the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies. “How to get it done without any unpleasant incidents taking place.
It’s going to be a formidable challenge for the government to disprove the notion of failures within the security apparatus.”
Pakistan is paying the price for shutdowns
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said last week that the national economy suffered cumulative daily losses of more than $684 million on account of recent agitation.
He was referring to supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan reaching the heart of the capital, despite a suspension of the local mobile phone network and shipping containers blocking entry and exit points to the city. The shutdown hit most business sectors, the gig economy, point-of-sale transactions, commuters, students, workers and more.
Pakistan can’t afford to incur such losses or deepen people’s grievances. It relies on International Monetary Fund bailouts and multibillion-dollar deals and loans from friendly countries to meet its economic needs. There are regular protests about energy bills and the cost of living.
Despite people's hardships, authorities have declared a three-day holiday surrounding the summit.
There have been reports of the government ordering the closure of wedding halls, restaurants, hotels, cafes and markets in Islamabad and the neighbouring garrison city Rawalpindi for security reasons.
Officials denied the reports but not very strenuously.
“Generally, high-profile conferences are meant to promote connectivity and trade and improve a country’s image,” said Gul. But not in this case because Islamabad won't look like a normal city, he added.
“It seems they lack innovative thinking," Gul said. "They are unable to use smart approaches and that’s why the easier way is to shut everything down.”
A seat at the table and saving face
The last time Pakistan hosted a summit was in March 2022, a month before Khan was kicked out of office and a fresh cycle of upheaval started.
The country's security situation and political instability are two factors that have prevented it from holding major international events.
Even its best-loved sport, cricket, has suffered. There was a 10-year absence of test matches after terrorists ambushed a Sri Lanka team bus in 2009, killing eight people and injuring players and officials.
The summit is Pakistan’s chance to shine, especially in front of its neighbour China, to whom it is in hock by several billion dollars and whose nationals are prime targets for armed groups, as well as India, which is sending its foreign minister to the country for the first time since 2015.
India and Pakistan have fought three wars and built up their armies but also developed nuclear weapons. China and India fought a war over their border in 1962.
Pakistan, unused to hosting such a high-level meeting, will have to put its best face forward.
Senior defence analyst Abdullah Khan said the government wants to present itself in the context of international legitimacy amid current domestic crises.
“The presence of heads of state and other senior officials will itself be a success as Pakistan will come out of its so-called isolation,” said Khan. “A peacefully held SCO will further improve the country’s image.”
