Donald Trump and the Republicans have experienced a tremendous victory. The elected 47th President of the United States of America did not only surpass the 270 electoral votes required; he also won the popular vote, can rely on an increased majority in the Senate, and will be able to count on the support of the Supreme Court.
It is significant for readers to take note of some interesting statistics that have emerged from the elections until now- (a) In the context of the Electoral College votes, Trump has won 312 with total votes cast in his favour being 74,684,966 votes. K. Harris has won 226 with total votes cast in her favour being 70,958,367 votes; (b) Voters also chose new Members of Congress who play a big part in passing laws that can have a profound effect on American lives. To win the Senate one needs to get more than 50 Seats out of 100. The Republicans have won 52 and the Democrats 46 (till the latest count); (c) In the House of Representatives to win majority a Party needs 218 seats and the Republicans have gained one seat and now stand at 213 (till the latest count) and the Democrats have lost one seat and now stand at 205.
Given his substantial political and legal power, coupled with the fact that he is now much more experienced and prepared than when he entered the Presidential Office last time in 2017, one should assume that President Trump will be determined to fulfil the multiple promises he made during his election campaign. In doing so, EUrope must prepare for a President Trump who might be erratic in his decisions, opportunistic at times, and changing course – a style of governing that will make it much more difficult to predict what comes next.
As a result of all this, the coming years will have an enormous impact not only on the political, economic, and democratic future of the US, but also at the international level, including in Europe, where the consequences of his victory will be tremendous.
In this context, pro-European forces must fundamentally change their mindset and hedge against what is likely to be a profoundly anti-EU President in the White House. Pro-Europeans need to become more ambitious, even if the willing Member States might have to cooperate outside the EU framework, instead of sacrificing that ambition for a continuing unity among the EU27.
Trump’s victory will have an enormous impact on US foreign policy and is being seen as another watershed moment by EU analysts like Almut Moller and Fabian Zuleg.
One can assume that Trump might forcefully call on NATO allies to take more responsibility for defending Europe’s security while threatening a de facto withdrawal from the Alliance if this demand is not met. When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Trump has already indicated that he will push Kyiv to agree to a ‘peace agreement’ with Russia, one that he wants to negotiate directly with Vladimir Putin. This could result in Ukraine losing some parts of its territory. Trump is likely to play all cards in his hands to push Europeans even more than in the past to align themselves with Washington.
On matters of economic policy, Trump has already indicated that he plans to force foreign companies to manufacture their products in the US, and that he wants to impose universal tariffs on products entering the country.
Such a measure may in all likelihood lead to a damaging tit-for-tat trade war across the Atlantic. In addition, some anti-EU leaders led by Victor Orbán may feel encouraged after Trump’s victory to try their best to use the election of Trump to undermine liberal democracy and divide Europeans as part of their overall longer-term strategy.
Trump’s victory will have an enormous impact on US
foreign policy and is being seen
as another watershed moment by EU analysts
like Almut Moller and Fabian Zuleg.
EU strategic analysts feel that the policies of Trump 2.0 might pose a direct threat to EU’s prosperity, security, sustainability, and democracy, and to its overall DNA focused on multilateralism and diplomacy. From a normative perspective, the creation of a united front to defend Europe in general and the EU in particular against its adversaries should be a core strategic objective in the months and years to come.
The negative approach towards Climate change and required financial support from the US by the Republican team has also worried climate negotiators and observers preparing for the COP29 conference from Nov 11-22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. This has led environmentalists and climate vulnerability strategists, including Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform to observe that "pushing for more ambitious climate finance is going to be almost impossible without the US buy-in, which will de-motivate developing countries from taking seriously the climate ambitions of the West."
This scenario has led Jennifer Morgan, Germany's State Secretary for International Climate Action to observe that it will be up to Germany and the European Union to maintain leadership in the climate finance discussions to ensure an acceptable result. One must remember that failure to land a strong climate finance deal would be a particularly big setback for the 45-country group of Least Developed Countries in UN climate negotiations, which is demanding countries pay up.
One needs to also observe here that by pointing out that this possible negative response from the United States on tackling climate change, it would be vital for Europe and China to hold firm. This is important because the US, China, and the 27-country European Union are the world's biggest historical polluters. To do so, national capitals ready to defend the European project will have to understand that they have no other option than to fundamentally intensify their level of cooperation inside or, if need be, outside the EU framework.
It would also be pertinent at this juncture to refer to China analyst Bill Bishop who has warned that China should take President-elect Trump’s observation about new tariff barriers and their implementation more carefully. Bishop in this context has drawn attention to the fact that Trump means it when he talks about tariffs. This is so because Trump sees China as having reneged on his past trade deal and that cost him the 2020 election. It would be interesting to add that the pressure from Washington on China did not ease after Trump left the White House in 2021.
The Biden Administration also kept the measures in place and in some cases widened them. All these denotations have created a paradigm whereby while the first wave of Trump tariffs was painful for China, the country is now in a much more vulnerable position.
Li Shuo, Director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute has observed that the loss of US-China political leadership at COP29 and in the future needs to be filled by China and the EU. "A strengthened climate alliance with Europe and China at the centre is our best hope for the next few years," he said. US States and cities, meanwhile, are planning to step up and fill the US void at the upcoming climate summit to encourage other countries to keep working toward Paris climate goals.
The US Climate Alliance has in this context decided to send delegations to COP29. The groups were formed in 2017 after Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement the first time, a move the Biden administration reversed. They represent nearly two-thirds of the US population and three-quarters of the U.S. GDP.
A report by the University of Maryland in September found that if the Biden administration climate laws and policies are rolled back, non-federal entities like states and cities can achieve a 48 percent emissions reduction by 2035 - falling short of previous US commitments to reduce greenhouse emissions at least 50 percent compared to 2005 levels by 2030.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has urged Americans to "bring down the temperature" recently following Trump's election victory and has also sought to console fellow Democrats who were alarmed by the former President's stunning comeback. In an orderly manner Biden has remarked that the recent US election had proven the integrity of the US electoral system and pledged an orderly transfer of power - an implicit rebuke of Trump, who sought to overturn his 2020 defeat to Biden and raised baseless claims of fraud during this year's campaign as well.
There are many areas of mutual interest where Bangladesh and the US will likely cross paths in an increasingly complex and changing reality. It remains to be seen how the relations between our interim government and the upcoming Trump presidency shape up. However, for his part, Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus has been quick to congratulate President-elect Donald Trump and expressed optimism for strengthened bilateral ties and future cooperation. One can only hope that going forward, our current government will properly engage with its US counterpart to ensure that our interests are protected.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance, can be reached at <muhammadzamir0@gmail.com>
