Myanmar’s military regime and the Brotherhood Alliance of three powerful ethnic armies failed to reach any new agreements during the latest round of China-brokered peace talks that ended on Thursday, according to sources close to the ethnic rebels.
The tripartite alliance, comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA), held three days of talks with junta representatives in Kunming, China.
The latest round was the fifth meeting between the two sides since China began mediating in late 2023. A meeting in January resulted in a ceasefire between junta troops and the alliance in northern Shan State, which borders China. Prior to the ceasefire, the alliance had seized a large swath of northern Shan State including border-trade hubs during its Operation 1027 offensive launched at the end of October last year.
This week’s talks followed discussions in March where China pushed in vain for a resumption of border trade worth more than US$ 5 billion a year.
The latest talks focused on fighting by the AA in western Myanmar’s Rakhine State and border trade with China through northern Shan State, according to sources close to the meeting.Chinese officials discussed the resumption of border trade with representatives of the MNDAA, which controls the major trade hub of Chin Shwe Haw. They also broached the battle for Rakhine, where the AA has captured eight towns plus neighboring Paletwa Township in Chin State and is attacking the frontier towns Buthidaung and Maungdaw bordering Bangladesh.
“But no new deals resulted from the meeting,” a source close to the talks told The Irrawaddy on Friday.
Neither the regime nor ethnic rebels have reported on the latest round of talks.
The AA’s deputy chief, Dr. Nyo Twan Awng, attended the talks alongside chief liaison officers from the MNDAA and TNLA. The regime sent its military judge advocate general, Lieutenant-General Myo Thant Naing, who was recently appointed to the junta’s peace negotiation body, the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee.
Myanmar’s border trade with China through northern Shan State remains disrupted four months after the ceasefire was reached. Disputes over customs revenue among various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) are causing the delays, according to an analyst close to the EAOs.
“At least four groups are active along the border trade route, namely the Kachin Independence Army, TNLA, MNDAA and Shan State Army. It will be difficult for them to reach agreement over trade tariff revenue. And the regime might be unwilling to share revenue with the EAOs,” he said.
Border trade with China has been severely disrupted since the Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in October.
Regarding Rakhine, the regime may have asked China to help secure a ceasefire with the AA to protect Beijing’s Belt and Road investments, said a political analyst. China is funding the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone, a deep-sea port and a railway in the western state.
However, no agreement about fighting in Rakhine was reached during the latest talks.
“The junta may be unwilling to yield to the political objectives of the AA in Rakhine. The AA will not stop fighting if the junta does not yield to its demands. The AA will not stop the fighting while the military is losing the battle,” the analyst commented.
The AA has said it wants autonomy for Rakhine within a federal Myanmar.
AA spokesman Khaing Thukha, speaking to The Irrawaddy in April, said: “The war in Myanmar is a fight between the regime and the people. Only when the fascist regime is wiped off Myanmar’s map will people be guaranteed safety. Without a guarantee of safety, there can be no freedom. So, I would like to stress that we can only secure freedom and safety after the regime is completely eradicated.”
