Shihoko Goto
The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP’s) surprisingly poor showing in Japan’s Lower House election on 27 October is at first blush a victory for democracy in Japan. The snap election called by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was meant to solidify his political foothold, but the gamble backfired — not only against him, but against the ruling party at large. Still, broader public confidence in the institution of government remains strong and there have been no calls to question the election results.
The poor performance of the LDP, which has been in government for all but four years since 1955, comes at a time of great political uncertainty worldwide, and Japan’s latest election results could hamper stability far beyond its own borders.
Ishiba’s decision to dissolve parliament and call a general election as soon as he became LDP leader in late September was never going to be without risk. Public frustration with a string of political financing scandals coupled with continued worries about Japan’s economic outlook clearly kept Ishiba from endearing himself to voters during his first month in office. After the LDP party faithful secured his spot as Fumio Kishida’s successor, Ishiba sought to shore up broader support with a snap election almost immediately. But the election evolved past a simple referendum about the new leader into a turning of the public tide against the LDP and the business of politics as usual.
As a result of Ishiba’s snap election decision, the LDP faces its biggest political challenge in over a decade.
To be sure, the LDP is still Japan’s single biggest political party, winning 191 seats in the 465-seat lower house, down from 247 in 2021. But even when counting the seats retained by its traditional coalition partner Komeito, it now only has 215 seats in the lower house, well short of the majority of 233 needed to appoint a prime minister.
There are two immediate concerns for the LDP itself. The first is whether it can forge an alliance together with Komeito to establish a coalition with another party by 26 November, the deadline set by the constitution for the first sitting of the newly-elected parliament. Given that the opposition parties combined now have 235 seats, the possibility of a government without the LDP cannot be ruled out. The conservatives’ second concern is that Ishiba’s prospects of holding on to power within the LDP has diminished significantly, suggesting yet another power struggle within the party is on the horizon.
The repercussions of Japan’s political uncertainties will be felt far beyond its borders.
The LDP’s decadeslong dominance of Japan’s political scene has led many to question just how strong Japan’s democratic traditions are and have been, and the lacklustre performance of the opposition even amid some of Japan’s biggest challenges left many scratching their heads.
But few believed the LDP was at any real risk of falling out of the majority, even after Ishiba’s snap election call. Even as speculation grew about his inability to garner public support for his party as a new leader, the LDP’s dismal performance in the latest election was highly unexpected. The result is that the party’s dominance of Japan’s political scene may no longer be taken for granted, and that prospects for a credible opposition are rising. That would be good news for Japanese democracy and could jump-start greater political engagement among younger voters in particular. Still, in the near term, concerns about potential instability at a time when a stable Japan is greatly needed by the rest of the world cannot be underestimated.
For over a decade Japan has grown into a stabilising force in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s first articulated a vision for the region based on a rules-based order, and both his successors — Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida — endorsed and pushed forward this idea. A free and open Indo-Pacific is now a critical component of Japan’s foreign policy moving forward.
That roadmap for the region has also been adopted in varying degrees by other advanced economies including the United States, Australia and other likeminded states. These countries as well have grown to expect that Japan will continue to be a regional leader. But as tumult continues in Japan’s domestic political scene, there is growing concern that the country could return to the days of upheaval and instability caused by a revolving door of prime ministers between 2006 and 2012.
The latest election results should make clear to the LDP that its dominance in Japanese politics cannot be taken from granted, and that reform from within is much needed. At the same time, the role that Japan plays as a regional stabiliser amid ever-increasing global uncertainties should not be underestimated, regardless of how Japan’s political leadership shapes up moving forward.
Shihoko Goto is the director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the Wilson Center.
Source: East Asia Forum
