Every year when European parliamentarians return from their summer break, the calls for a structural overhaul of the EU seem inevitable. This year will be no exception, though the impetus for change might be more powerful than ever.
The EU is facing numerous daunting, even existential, challenges. War rages on its doorstep, economic competitiveness lags, and deep social polarization persists. Political uncertainty in France and indecision in Germany compound the fragility of the EU at the same time as an unpredictable leadership transition in the US threatens to usher in a prolonged period of American isolationism, leaving Europe with little choice but to take its fate into its own hands.
The EU has managed to overcome severe disruptions in recent years, from sovereign debt crises to the withdrawal of the UK. But in the present geopolitical environment it is weak, vulnerable, and ill-prepared to handle the challenges it faces. A major reason for this is the enduring influence of populist forces that weaponize concerns about illegal migration and openly defy European unity.
For example, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has led Hungary’s government since 2010 (after previously holding the office between 1998 and 2002), has seemingly made it his mission to erode the rule of law in Hungary and across the EU, while undermining European cohesion.
Last month, his government assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. Within days, he paid surprise visits to Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing to discuss a potential Ukraine peace deal. It was a clear bid both to exploit the EU’s institutional apparatus and to undermine it strategically.
He also attended, again with no warning or coordination with the EU, the summit of the Organization of Turkic States, which includes as an “observer” the internationally unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. EU leaders scrambled to clarify that Orban had no mandate to represent the EU externally, let alone to negotiate any kind of peace deal for Ukraine. To highlight the fact that Orban was acting out of turn, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, stripped Hungary of the right to host the next meeting of member states’ foreign and defense ministers, a responsibility that normally falls to the nation that holds the presidency of the Council of the EU.
Unfazed, Orban proceeded to announce a new fast-track visa system that would enable citizens of eight countries, including Russia and Belarus, to enter Hungary without security checks, raising fears about the integrity of border-free travel in the Schengen Area, and EU security more broadly.
Orban has also sought, with his counterpart in Slovakia, to use EU levers to force Ukraine to end its ban on the flow of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline, part of which runs through Hungarian territory.
Most recently, Hungary blocked a joint EU statement on “irregularities” during the presidential election in Venezuela, prompting Borrell to issue a separate statement. EU leaders can attempt to carry out all the damage control they want, but Orban is achieving his goal of making the bloc appear confused, discordant, and weak. Having internalized key lessons from the Soviet era, he knows that empires and institutions begin to falter once they become objects of ridicule.
To regain its footing, the EU must act with greater urgency and resolve, even if that entails uncomfortable confrontations with member states.
This has contributed to the growing impression that in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical power plays and realpolitik, the moral authority of the EU and its commitment to values-based governance are quaint and ineffective relics of the past. A lack of visionary leadership and cohesion among key members have only compounded the problem.
Not only has the once-powerful Franco-German engine of European integration run out of steam, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s new mandate, which she secured by crafting an ambiguous platform that sought to appeal to a broad spectrum of interests, seems unlikely to bring profound change.
Against this backdrop, forging a coherent vision on critical issues such as competitiveness, innovation, and defense will prove difficult, at best. Those who stand to gain the most from this situation are spoilers, such as Orban, who have learned how to exploit disunity and ambiguity.
During previous crises, from the Brexit negotiations following the withdrawal of the UK to the EU’s previous dealings with Hungary over Orban’s assaults on democracy and the rule of law, the bloc has relied largely on a legalistic and technocratic approach, which has often left it worse off.
But calls for the EU to start speaking the “language of power” have gone unheeded. And while proposals for strengthening Borrell’s mandate in his role as the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy have been advanced, they represent little more than cosmetic changes.
To regain its footing, the EU must act with greater urgency and resolve, even if that entails uncomfortable confrontations with member states. And to thrive in the world of today and tomorrow it must once again establish itself as an indispensable partner for the US.
This means strengthening its economy, not least through innovation. It also means heeding the advice of Robert Gates, a former US defense secretary, to engage more effectively with younger generations of Americans. In short, bolstering the image of the EU, which often is viewed more negatively than the images of individual member states, is essential.
With US President Joe Biden now a lame duck after his decision to withdraw from the upcoming presidential election, Ukraine and Europe have entered a period of elevated vulnerability. Russia’s hybrid attacks could escalate in the coming months, posing a significant challenge for the EU, especially with Orban at the helm of the council.
If the US presidential election in November returns Donald Trump to the White House, pressure for a “negotiated peace” in Ukraine could intensify, further disrupting an already fragile geopolitical landscape.
The EU faces a stark choice. It can either continue to allow internal and external forces to weaken it or it can act boldly to reclaim its integrity and strengthen its influence. From encouraging innovation and bolstering the rule of law to establishing and implementing a shared foreign policy vision, the EU must demonstrate that it can be both principled and powerful. Otherwise, it risks being left behind.
Ana Palacio, a former foreign minister of Spain and former senior vice president and general counsel of the World Bank Group, is a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University. ©Project Syndicate
Source: Arab News
