Novel coronavirus may hit its peak in Bangladesh next month, experts and studies indicate. The Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) developed a methodical graph or prediction model to determine and track the COVID-19 transmission in the country. Preferring anonymity an official of IEDCR said that considering three parameters, the IEDCR has developed a model of transmission of the disease. That is, how it is spreading, the reproduction rate and the preparations for controlling the disease.
Mentioning the three factors, the researcher said the number of cases of infection is still alarming. However, the reproduction rate is only around 2-3 in our country as it is in other countries. Medicine specialist and Professor of a private medical college in the capital Z M Kabir Chowdhury told Bangladesh Post, “It’s tough to predict about coronavirus infections in Bangladesh because authorities concerned delayed sample testing after the first infection was confirmed on March 8.”
The number of corona infections is rising in Bangladesh that means the rising trend would continue till and then it might go down slowly. It happens during all epidemics. At first, it goes up and then after a period of time it comes down, he added. According to some experts and the nature of transmission of the virus in Bangladesh, the number of infections can be highest from mid-May to late of the month.
Former Vice-Chancellor (VC) of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU) and Chairman of the Department of Virology Dr Nazrul Islam said, “In every communicable disease peak hit depends on the programmes taken to control the disease. Eighty percent of the total corona patients in the country are from Dhaka city and Dhaka division.”
“If we want to reduce the infection, we need to focus on these two places. Besides, if we do not handle the total interference with other districts, the disease will increase. The number of death will also increase,” he said.
