The whole world has been carefully monitoring how India, with the largest population in the world, is responding to the use of fossil fuels and whether this country will be able to ever achieve its emission targets.
Environmental analysts have noted that while India continues to rely heavily on coal, the South Asian economic giant is also trying to widen its renewable energy production, especially after the costs of renewable energy production have fallen drastically in recent years around the world.
Yet, experts including A. Parvaiz feel that India—one of the world’s three largest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs)—has to face many headwinds for achieving its net zero target by 2070 and before that, even reach the target of a 45 percent reduction in GHG emission intensity by 2030 from 2005 levels.
According to the specialists, addressing the gaps in policies and strategies are some of the main measures India needs to take for a rapid transition to renewable energy sources. However, most of them believe phasing out fossil fuels such as coal appears to be a daunting task for India given its huge reliance on them. It may be recalled that India ratified the Paris Agreement on Climate Change in 2016, committing to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2°C by the end of the century.
As part of its first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), India had also pledged to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of its economy by 33–35 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels. Nevertheless, in August 2022, the Indian government revised its NDCs, raising its ambition to a 45 % reduction level in GHG emission intensity and hoped that this would take place by 2030 from 2005 levels.
India, also a technology giant, has also pledged to achieve net zero carbon emissions and become carbon-neutral by 2070. Such an announcement was made by the Indian government in 2021 during CoP 26 in UK. This was consistent with views expressed by the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell that decarbonization is going to be the most significant process for transforming the global economy in this century.
India, also a technology giant, has also pledged to
achieve net zero carbon emissions
and become carbon-neutral by 2070. Such an announcement was
made by the Indian government
in 2021 during CoP 26 in UK.
Nevertheless, in the current evolving scenario coal appears to be the leading material associated with India’s quest towards development. Currently, the involvement of coal in India’s energy generation is 72 percent and accounts for nearly 65 per cent of its fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Such a scenario has led many experts to suggest that the contribution of coal for energy generation in India, is not going to change anytime soon. In fact, Professor Amit Garg, at the Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad-Gujarat, has observed that “coal cannot be removed
from India’s energy mix in the next 20 years.
We require coal because we need a development-led transition, not a transition-led development. We can adopt new technologies and try new ways, but we in India cannot eradicate coal just yet.”
Similarly, A. Kumar Sinha, an energy expert who is the Technical Director of Intertek, has mentioned recently that energy security in India is currently dependent on coal and would take time for its phasing out given how the country is yet to be ready for a rapid phase-out of coal, which is currently extremely important for India’s energy security. He has added that “in phasing it out, we have to improve flexible operations of coal-based plants for electricity dispatch, especially with increasing levels of renewable energy.” Sinha has also interestingly underlined that coal being an important energy resource of India, many consider it as an item that is “needed to wash its sins” – particularly at a time when there is a continuous increase in production of renewables. Such a Sinha observation denotes that India, “has to save itself… it can’t leave it to the rest of the world.”
India, as a country, has however been welcomed for the progress the country has achieved in its clean energy transition in recent years. The Indian government aims to increase non-fossil fuel capacity to 500 GW and source 50 percent of its energy from renewables by 2030.
In this context, an article published by researchers of the Bharti Institute of Public Policy at the Indian School of Business, has commented that “progress within this dimension seems encouraging on several fronts. Today, India stands fourth globally in total renewable capacity, and this denotes a 400 percent growth over the last decade.” Nevertheless, despite this progress, the authors have noted that India faces a lot of challenges as it still remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels.
Such scrutiny about India’s growth and their efforts to successfully move forward on the path of a successful “Green Journey” has come to the forefront because of its socio-economic dimensions. With India’s economy expected to expand rapidly in the coming years, there will also be an increase in demand for resources, and the environmental footprints will also increase.
It would also be important at this juncture to refer to the latest World Energy Outlook Report prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA). They have observed that India’s energy consumption will increase by 30 percent by 2030 and 90 percent by 2050, with carbon emissions from energy use rising by 32 percent and 72 percent in the same period. This is obviously something to think about.
The only response would be available to such an anxiety, if India over the next seven years, is successful in being able to offer a developmental model wherein a country continues to grow and prosper without significantly increasing its energy or carbon footprint. But, the path ahead for India’s energy transition is full of significant challenges.
In this context,” B V R Subrahmanyam, the CEO of NITI Ayog, India’s top official think tank, has observed that “this is one of the most challenging times for India. We have the challenge of growth, jobs and energy consumption, which we have to balance with environmental considerations.” This remark appeared in India’s national daily, The Times of India, on September 11, 2024. However, he has also emphasized that fossil fuels will continue to drive the country’s growth - “it is no longer about growth or sustainability, but growth and sustainability.”
Other experts also believe that there are hurdles along the road as the country seeks to phase out polluting energy sources. In this context, an article published in the Outlook magazine on October 30, uncertainties such as low renewable energy (RE) investments in recent years, land availability, high intermittency of renewables, higher costs of panels due to import duties and distribution companies that are tied up in long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) not buying new RE power are some of the other major concerns. This article has also noted that- “while there has been progress on deployment of electric vehicles in the country, upfront costs and a lack of reliable charging infrastructure pose challenges in scaling up the initiatives. In addition, for the industrial sector, fossilized manufacturing capacities will also create decarbonization challenges”.
Interestingly, Raghav Pachouri, Associate Director, Low Carbon Pathways and Modelling, Vasudha Foundation, has also highlighted how storage can play an important role in making energy transition successful. Pachouri has observed- “the success of the energy transition to renewable energy lies with the integration of storage. Current capacities are limited, and the quantum of requirements is huge.” It has also been noted that by Pachouri that infrastructure for electric vehicles remains inadequate, with fewer than 2,000 public charging stations as of 2023.
All these nuances within the paradigm have their own connotations. They also denote that India has a hard task ahead and that it must tread the path carefully. Such a scenario is also applicable for Bangladesh.
(Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst
specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good
governance, can be reached at <muhammadzamir0@gmail.com>)
