Despite the disruptive economic impact due to the coronavirus pandemic, the country’s economy is recovering swiftly from the disastrous turmoil signaling a hope for all, local and foreign, experts said.
The latest Asian Development Bank’s prediction about Bangladesh’s growth of gross domestic product (GDP) has made it clear that the country is doing the best to keep alive its economy on the right track despite 0.7 percent negative growth for the economies across developing Asia, they mentioned.
As the government reopened its economy amid COVID-19, it has been working hard with providing all out supports including cash incentive packages to the different government and non-government sectors in order to activate the business activities, economist said.
On the one hand, record forex reserves and record remittance inflows in recent time, and positive export earnings in the last several months are creating new possibilities in trade and commerce, they added.
People including day labourers have returned to work, which is creating a normal situation for the country, they mentioned.
As part of the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's well-planned plan to boost the rural economy, Bangladesh has achieved an average growth rate of over 6 percent in the last decade, they said.
Economists claimed breaking the 6 percent growth circle has already achieved 8 percent.
While the global economy is in turmoil due to the global epidemic, Bangladesh's GDP growth has reached over 5 percent in the outgoing fiscal year, they said adding that, the country's per capita income has also increased by $237 in the last fiscal during crisis.
However, the per capita income of Bangladesh rose to $2,064 in FY20 while the economy grew by a record 8.15 percent in FY 2018-19.
The country’s remittance inflow witnessed a record high to touch a milestone of $18.20 billion last fiscal despite a global economic recession amid the Covid-19 crisis.
The country’s remittance inflow has increased 35.93 percent to $1.96 billion in August against $1.44 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Expatriates sent a record remittance of $2.60 billion from abroad in July.
This is the highest monthly remittance received in the country’s history helping push foreign currency reserves up to $39.04 billion till August in the current year.
Besides, the country’s export earnings have rose by 4.32 percent to $2.96 billion in August this year from $2.84 billion in the same month of last year, according to the Export Promotion Bureau.
The exports earnings have increased by 44 percent to $3.91 billion in July, from $2.71 billion in June.
This figure increased by 85.61 percent or $1.25 billion to stand at $2.71 billion in June.
The country has earned more than $1.46 billion by exporting goods in May while the figure was only $0.52 billion in April.
On the other hand, the country’s capital market has become a lucrative place for local and foreign investors and secured top rank across the world following market supportive measures by the government, analysts said.
The share prices of prime index on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) are soaring hitting a 12-month high in the last week.
In August, Bangladesh has ranked top position in the capital market’s trading growth index among the other countries amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage in Bangladesh and the Bloomberg, an US based news agency report.
For ensuring food security, Aman paddy has planted on 57.60 lakh hectares of land across the country till September 13, which is 96.97 percent of the target despite fear amid the pandemic and prolonged floods.
Farmers cultivated Aman on 55.71 lakh hectares in Last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) and farmers.
Professor Shibli Rubayat Ul Islam, dean of the Faculty of Business Studies at Dhaka University (DU) and chairman of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), said, “We hope that the economy of Bangladesh will recover soon.”
By 2021, the growth will exceed 8 percent, he said adding that, “The indicators of economic development are exceeding the target.”
“So hopefully that the growth will be more than what has been conceived and predicted by various agencies” he informed.
Highlighting the record growth of all economic indicators than expected including remittances, reserve, capital market, import-export, food production, the country is going beyond the target in all respects, he mentioned.
Therefore, the economic progress of Bangladesh will be more than the forecast of ADB or various agencies, Rubayat hoped.
Former lead economist of the World Bank Dr Zahid Hussain told The Bangladesh Post, “The economy is slowly turning around as the Covid-19 has gradually reduced across the world during several months.
“Many countries have now opened their borders,” he said adding that now a normal situation has gradually been created.
Although the country’s economy has witnessed rapid growth, sustaining the economy now is a bigger challenge, he mentioned.
Hussain said the government needs to take some fresh initiatives to face challenges caused by the Covid-19 crisis.
Asian Development Bank has highly lauded Bangladesh for managing its economy well amid the virus pandemic.
Bangladesh economy has started recovering from the hurdles it faced during the Covid-19 pandemic, added the ADB.
The Asian Development Outlook 2020 has also predicted a 6.8 percent growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Bangladesh for the current fiscal year 2020-21 despite coronavirus pandemic.
Manmohan Parkash, ADB country director in Bangladesh, said in the ADO, “Bangladesh economy has started recovering from the pandemic.”
“Despite significant pressure on the health and pandemic management systems, the government has managed the economy well with appropriate economic stimulus and social protection measures, ensuring basic services and commodities for the poor and vulnerable,” he added.
He also added that recent economic performance in exports and remittances, and the government's macroeconomic management, including securing foreign funds for economic stimulus and social protection, have made this recovery realistic.
Parkash further said, “We are encouraged by the increase in exports and remittances, and hope, the recovery will be sustained, which will help achieve the projected growth rate.”
“Early access to vaccine and continued emphasis on health pandemic management can help sustain this recovery. This crisis is an opportunity to undertake further reforms in resource mobilisation, export diversification, employment generation, skills development, as well as social protection, and ADB is working with the government in these areas to provide further support,” he said.
Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal said Bangladesh will achieve the expected 8.1 or 8.2 percent economic growth in the fiscal year 2020-2021, expressing happiness over the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) forecast envisaging Bangladesh's growth at 6.8 percent.
“In the last two months, we saw a 50 percent rise in remittance inflow, and our exports have also begun to bounce back on track,” he said.
