Due to its geographical location, Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and is already severely affected. Its main causes are flash floods, seasonal floods, severe floods, cyclones, hailstorms, unseasonal rains, droughts, rising salinity and rising sea levels due to rising temperatures. 60 percent of the country's land is 5 meters above sea level and it is expected that by the year 2080 the sea level will rise to 40 cm. or 15 inches.
According to the Global Climate Change Risk Index 2021, Bangladesh is the 7th most vulnerable country in terms of climate risk in the world. Various studies estimate that the average annual rainfall will increase by 4%, 2.3%, and 6.7% in 2030, 2050, and 2070, respectively, compared to the 1961-1990 period. The average temperature will increase by 4.700C, 2.500C and 30C in 2030, 2050 and 2070 respectively. The study also revealed that the temperature in Bangladesh will increase by 2.400C and rainfall will increase by 9.7%.
Based on the World Bank's 2022 Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), the IMF indicated that Bangladesh's annual average losses due to tropical cyclones alone have already reached $1 billion and will increase in the coming days. According to data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), climate-related natural disasters cost Bangladesh around $11.3 billion in 2021, which is around 2.47 percent of its GDP in the fiscal year 2021-2022.
About 55 million people in the country are affected by climate change and 4.1 million are displaced by 2020. Bangladesh is the most vulnerable country in South Asia for climate migration. About 13.3 million people will be internal climate migrants by 2050, accounting for about 27% of South Asia's future climate population. The IPCC predicts that Bangladesh will lose 17% of its land and 30% of its food production by 2050.
According to a 2021 study by the World Food Program (WFP), an estimated 25 million people in Bangladesh are food insecure, with about 11 million of them acutely hungry due to epidemics and other situations caused by climate change. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) 2021 survey, household income and food expenditure have decreased due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In particular, low-income families are severely affected. Malnutrition, food and water borne illnesses, infectious diseases, air pollution are all consequences of climate change.
According to 2021 World Bank data, about 47 percent of Bangladesh's labor force is closely involved in the agricultural sector, which accounts for 16 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Agriculture is the main source of livelihood for most rural communities that are facing challenges due to climate change. Food insecurity has become a critical problem in the country due to increasing temperature, erratic rainfall patterns, natural calamities like flash floods, monsoon floods, cyclones and droughts.
According to ADB report, Bangladesh is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change and will face an annual loss of up to 9 percent of its economy by the end of this century. Widespread crop losses, lost arable land, displaced populations, poisoned groundwater—this is not a horror story, but a very real possibility in the future if current destructive global resource use patterns are not changed, says ADB Vice President Bindu Lohani.
The Government of Bangladesh formulated the National Adaptation Plan (2023-2050) for 113 major intervention adaptations in 11 climate-vulnerable areas of the country with an estimated cost of US$ 230 billion with limited domestic investment for implementation. Besides, the flow of money from international sources is also very low. Global climate change has resulted in extreme droughts in Asia and Africa as well as heat waves in Bangladesh. The world is gradually becoming warmer due to GHG emissions, which Bangladesh is directly facing.
Bangladesh ranks 5th in the world in terms of damages due to climate change. 90 million people in the country live in 'high risk' exposure areas and 53 million are in 'very high' exposure. A one-meter rise in sea level would permanently damage the country's coastal regions, where up to 14% of its land area could be inundated, and its large population would be most at risk. It will also damage wetlands and the world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, which provide income and nutrition for millions of people and fight rural poverty. The salinity of already arable land in coastal areas has increased due to the rise in sea level due to climate change. Tidal water is gradually intruding and making vast amounts of arable land completely unfit for cultivation. Currently, 13% of the area in Bagerhat, Khulna and Satkhira in the southwestern districts of Bangladesh has salinity, which will increase to 16% in 2050 and 18% in 2100.
Due to global climate change, the temperature of the country has already increased to an extreme, as a result of which farmers' crops are burning in the fields, the crop yield has decreased, people are in health risk due to extreme temperature. By 2050, rice and wheat production will decline by 8.8% and 32%, respectively. Crop production will decline by 30% in 2100. In this context, immediate mitigation funds are urgently needed for human food and nutrition security through appropriate adaptation innovations to climate change and expansion of climate resilient crops, livestock, fisheries technologies. As well as the country's chronic climate resilience mechanism, technology innovation, infrastructure development, resettlement and employment of displaced people and other losses need special allocation of funds which are impossible for a newly developing country like Bangladesh to invest. However, Bangladesh is not at all responsible for creating this situation. It is very clear through the data analysis that the developed countries are increasing the GHG emissions for their luxurious life and development and as a result the world is warming which is adversely affecting the people of Bangladesh.
Rice production in Bangladesh in 2023 was 39.1 million tons. At present, the country's population is increasing by two million every year, which will reach 215.4 million by 2050, and the total rice requirement for feeding them is 44.6 million tons. On the other hand, according to a government study, agricultural production has already declined by 7-10 percent due to climate change-induced flash floods, droughts, heat waves and salinity.
Due to climate change, the winter time of the country has decreased. On the other hand, most of the country's seasonal fruits are harvested during the summer season. As a result, the shelf life of these produce is rapidly reduced and spoiled due to high temperatures, causing an annual financial loss of 2.4 billion dollars. High temperatures are negatively impacting the livestock and poultry industries. The growth of cattle and poultry is disturbed due to increase in body metabolism due to increase in temperature. As temperatures increase, sea surface temperatures rise and water temperatures change, disrupting fish reproduction and production.
A few years ago, the United Nations issued a "red alert" for the future of the world due to climate change. It recommended that the countries responsible for high carbon emissions due to climate change should pay necessary compensation to protect Bangladesh, one of the most vulnerable countries from the threat of climate change. The country is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to overpopulation, high dependence on limited natural resources and vulnerable coastal regions. Acknowledging and respecting climate justice in Bangladesh needs to be seen as a foundation for distributive and systemic justice.
Bangladesh is working principledly to address the vulnerability and multiple risks caused by global climate change. For this, the government has adopted various policies, plans and strategies in accordance with the legal framework of the country.
Dr. M Monir Uddin, Agronomist and Consultant, GAIN Bangladesh, Cell: +8801711987113, E-mail: monir.uddin@rocketmail.com
